COVID acceleration > disruption
Coronavirus is an accelerator not a disruptor.
I’m writing this in response to a bunch of articles and posts I’ve seen shared on social media arguing that the coronavirus pandemic is ‘a great disruptor’ that will changed everything forever. The COVID-19 pandemic is a world historical event with big consequences for all of us, however I really do not see it as a ‘disruptor’ - I see it as an accelerator. The difference between a disruptor and an accelerator is that an acceleration increases the velocity of already existing tendencies within society and culture, whereas a disruptor fundamentally challenges and rewrites the pre-existing rules of society at large. Let me be clear, I'm not saying that the coronavirus pandemic hasn't caused an enormous amount of disruption in peoples lives. It has undoubtedly done huge damage to the health, economy and politics of almost every country it’s touched. But when you look at what's actually caused the widespread disruption in society, it wasn't a virus in and of its self that caused much of the disruption. It was in fact government responses to the virus and the attempts to control and mitigate its impact that caused the huge disruption felt by people the world over.
While it's likely that will see a second wave of infections take hold in western countries over the winter it is unlikely that the government response will retain the level of state intervention and draconian sanction for much of next year, irrespective of the death figures over that time. With a vaccine on the way most likely sometime within the next year or so, the ‘new normal’ maybe much more short lived than you think.
Let's examine some of the ways that the coronavirus pandemic has caused an acceleration of existing tendencies rather than a rewriting of norms. In respect of the economy, before the coronavirus pandemic took hold globally way back at the end of last year, economists had been predicting a major recession was on the horizon in most western economies in the coming months and years. Huge private debt bubbles, failure to get to grips with the failings of the banking system in 2008 and the enormous level of income and wealth inequality in most western nations as of 2019 were a recipe for economic disaster. It's undeniable that the government shutdown is of world economies over the past six months has had an unprecedented and disproportionate negative effect on the global economic health, COVID-19 was merely the catalyst and accelerant that has exposed the gaping vulnerabilities in the global financial system its globalised workforce and reliance on international frictionless trade to function efficiently.
In a similar vein if we talk about the impact that the pandemic has had on public services and in particular the public health service in Britain the NHS, we can see clearly that pre-existing tendencies and assumptions about how to manage healthcare demands have not changed in the face of a new reality, but in fact merely accelerated old ideas and assumptions. More privatisation and outsourcing of healthcare services in order to reach demand. Gestures of national solidarity with healthcare professionals and in particular nurses but no clear sign of a commitment to improving the pay and living standards of those workers. If COVID-19 was indeed a disruptor as some have claimed we would see new models emerging from the pandemic out of naked necessity for dealing with the unprecedented scale and scope of the crisis. Instead we see the same managerial neoliberal policy been trotted out by the ever hated, but sadly revered, ‘expert class’ of policy ghouls. Their instinct isn’t to disrupt things in order to improve them, it’s to accelerate existing ideas and beliefs about society and the economy (all of which are by their nature political not empirical).
When it comes to consumer behaviours, again it is undoubtable that COVID-19 has had very real impacts on the ways in which consumers can behave and indeed during lockdown their priorities, wants, desires and needs all changed dramatically. Face masks and hand sanitiser first, groceries second, small pick me up’s third. When you look closer however at how consumer behaviour has really changed during this pandemic we see that in fact consumers have largely been forced by intervention to refrain from certain patterns of behaviour and purchasing habits.
With so much uncertainty it is a very big stretch to assume that once these interventions are lifted these new behaviours and patterns of purchasing will stick around for the long term. They come from a reaction to a changed set of circumstances, rather than a self directed desire to change.
Looking at the areas of the economy consumers have continued to participate in they turn out to be the very same sectors that have been accelerating and dominating the consumer landscape for years. Technology, streaming, gaming, health foods, technical and practical clothing, subscription services and fitness. While it is the case that the restrictions placed on consumers have in some instanced forced them to change the way they engage with these sectors, like doing workouts from home, most of them required very little change from consumers for them to continue to consume them.
The pandemic accelerated the growth of online shopping because of the compounding factors of convenience and self preservation, but the shift to online shopping for essentials such as groceries, white goods, clothing and electronics has been accelerating long before it’s physical competition was shutdown by Whitehall. Before the crisis, the areas struggling to get to grips with the new economy were physical retail (the glut of department store closures was a clue) and manufacturing. Services like the hospitality and beauty/grooming sectors were booming. As was travel, albeit the AirBnB model not the Thomas Cook. As social distancing restrictions are lifted and travel bans waived, I think we will see the existing pathologies of the struggling sectors worsen and the service and travel industries re-emerge with gusto.
If we take a look at a relatively new sector, we can see again the acceleration of an industry that was already doing well do even better. Over the past few years you might have noticed the massive increase in subscription based delivery box services. From wine to vegetables, razors to books, the delivery box subscription service has become and essential service for many shielding households during lockdown. It was already growing very quickly before the virus reached Europe with brands liked Harry’s and Hellofresh growing exponentially over the past 3 years. Again while the necessity and scale of services like these couldn't have been predicted during the crisis, the acceleration of these subscription services is merely an intensification of the pre-existing trend for convenience rather than something completely new born out of the pandemic.
In times of crisis people tend to look close to hand for solutions and strategies to get through it. After adapting to the change in circumstances, a new normal emerges. But the new normal is more often a remodulation of the pre-existing than a fundamental, qualitative change in the experience of every day life. Don't get too carried away with the ‘this changes everything’ narrative. Look to the recent protests in Belarus to find a clear example of how after a crisis (the collapse of the USSR) the old models, hierarchies and societal tendencies can remain pervasive for many years after the collapse of the old order. Lukashenko, the leader in question, was a former general in the USSR and has remained in power in Belarus for 26 years.
While the long-term impact of the pandemic is unknowable, those of us in the insight industry might do best to conceive of the pandemic as an acceleration of socio-cultural and economic forces rather than a disruption to them.